K-22hornet.
New member
I drew my first muzzleloader tag. I'm pumped!
Colorado Elk draw results are up...
- Thread starter K-22hornet.
- Start date
ColoradoOsprey
New member
Here's the link:
http://wildlife.state.co.us/Hunting/BigG...rencePoints.htm
ELK UNSUCCESSFUL REFUND CHECK
I guess I'll be eating out of the freezer...got 2 last year.
http://wildlife.state.co.us/Hunting/BigG...rencePoints.htm
ELK UNSUCCESSFUL REFUND CHECK
I guess I'll be eating out of the freezer...got 2 last year.
Last edited:
doggin coyotes
Well-known member
I had 2 preference points for muzzle loader elk. I now have 3 and a refund check on the way. I'm NOT to happy. I hope some out of state weenie (that drew instead of me) enjoys his 2006 muzzle loader hunt!!!! Colorado big game hunting is really starting to [beeep] me off. This may very well be my last year of applying for any of the treasured CO. big game tags. Did I mention I was [beeep]?
doggin coyotes
Well-known member
K-22hornet, How many preference points did you have? Please tell me you had at least 2.
Longcruise
New member
First guys, I'm not saying anything here to rub it in, but!
Last year I drew ml bull tag with one point. This year I drew ML bull tag with no points. My grandson drew for his very first ML bull tag with no points and drew a bull. I drew a bear tag with no points.
Like I said, this is not about rubbing it in, but I always know almost within 100% what I will and won't draw, and more importantly I know before applying what i can draw. For example, I know I will not draw a buck antelope tag this year and knew I did not want any of the doe tags that could be drawn as a second choice. But, I also know that next year I will draw the buck antelope tag.
You have to learn how to read the draw stats and results from the previous year and a quick easy analysis tells you what your odds are. No way I'll try to draw ML elk tags that I'm not going to get! I'm too old for that and plan to hunt elk every year with ML (or bow) till it's lights out!
Last year I drew ml bull tag with one point. This year I drew ML bull tag with no points. My grandson drew for his very first ML bull tag with no points and drew a bull. I drew a bear tag with no points.
Like I said, this is not about rubbing it in, but I always know almost within 100% what I will and won't draw, and more importantly I know before applying what i can draw. For example, I know I will not draw a buck antelope tag this year and knew I did not want any of the doe tags that could be drawn as a second choice. But, I also know that next year I will draw the buck antelope tag.
You have to learn how to read the draw stats and results from the previous year and a quick easy analysis tells you what your odds are. No way I'll try to draw ML elk tags that I'm not going to get! I'm too old for that and plan to hunt elk every year with ML (or bow) till it's lights out!
Longcruise is right on... You have to know how to read the results and the odds of drawing. 3 prefernce points is not that many for most areas. There are areas that require less to no. All depends on where and how you want to hunt and how many others want the samething. Complain all you want about, but do the research and you will find what is happening. If your in a unit that takes more than 5 preference points to drawa than the residents get 85% of the total lic., if your in an area that requires less than that res get 65% of all lic. So the odds are in your favor.
Sooo time to check for me.... I know my result already cause I know the requirementsd for the tag.
Sooo time to check for me.... I know my result already cause I know the requirementsd for the tag.
HEHE.... Just like I thought, 9 prefrence points and no tag, and leftover drawing in the mail. So I gues I will not get a gift and draw my tag for another year atleast. No big deal it will take me atleast another 5 years to get it anyhow.
So finger crossed for deer, but I know for a fact that I will not be in the running for atleast 3 more years.
Gl all on the rest of draw.
Doggin what unit and season did you put in for? I will look it up and tell you what the numbers of points you need for that tag if you want just let me know which unit.
So finger crossed for deer, but I know for a fact that I will not be in the running for atleast 3 more years.
Gl all on the rest of draw.
Doggin what unit and season did you put in for? I will look it up and tell you what the numbers of points you need for that tag if you want just let me know which unit.
Last edited:
ColoradoOsprey
New member
Quote:
ELK UNSUCCESSFUL REFUND CHECK
I guess I'll be eating out of the freezer...got 2 last year.
I knew it was gonna happen....it takes 3 where I hunt. Antelope take 2 and deer takes 12. I was zeroed out last year on Antelope and Elk, but I've got 6 points for deer. The sucky part is waiting over a dozen years to hunt dear where I want.
I wasn't whining...just stating
ELK UNSUCCESSFUL REFUND CHECK
I guess I'll be eating out of the freezer...got 2 last year.
I knew it was gonna happen....it takes 3 where I hunt. Antelope take 2 and deer takes 12. I was zeroed out last year on Antelope and Elk, but I've got 6 points for deer. The sucky part is waiting over a dozen years to hunt dear where I want.
I wasn't whining...just stating
Longcruise
New member
Quote:
I wasn't whining...just sta
I know what you mean. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
My comments were for those who apply over and over hoping for a tag that can't happen! I'd be glad to post a page of stats and explain how it's done if anyone wants to see it.
Those stats can be trying!
When they added third and fourth poace options it really mislead a lot of people. Many tags have no chance whatever for 2nd choice even, but being allowed to make a third or fourth choice causes people to believe it could happen.
I wasn't whining...just sta
I know what you mean. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
My comments were for those who apply over and over hoping for a tag that can't happen! I'd be glad to post a page of stats and explain how it's done if anyone wants to see it.
Those stats can be trying!
When they added third and fourth poace options it really mislead a lot of people. Many tags have no chance whatever for 2nd choice even, but being allowed to make a third or fourth choice causes people to believe it could happen.
K-22hornet.
New member
It took me 2pts to draw unit 39 for a bull. I have 10pts for deer and am trying for 142. Might take me a few more years, but I hear it's worth the wait.
doggin coyotes
Well-known member
First choice was a bull in unit 67 and second choice was for a cow state wide. There was a time by appling just like this I could count on getting a tag every OTHER year. One PP would do it. I reckon things are changing.
And I'll bet anybody who wants to take me up on it a $100 that I can find somebody hunting in the same GM unit and season I put in for (and didn't draw for) that had only 1 PP or possibly zero PP's. And chances are real good it would be a non resident.
Yeah post a page of stats and explain how it's done Longcruise. I'm all ears and eyes my friend.
And I'll bet anybody who wants to take me up on it a $100 that I can find somebody hunting in the same GM unit and season I put in for (and didn't draw for) that had only 1 PP or possibly zero PP's. And chances are real good it would be a non resident.
Yeah post a page of stats and explain how it's done Longcruise. I'm all ears and eyes my friend.
COcajun
New member
I pulled my ML Bull elk, but I'm willing to hunt lazy short horned slugs on vacation from Estes Park, carrying CWD to boot! (I had 1 point going in to this year since I got my second choice, a cow, last year) I'm also willing to head out west to work sagey midsized muleys, so I'm banking on another deer this year too. (No points needed to usually pull a buck, or just put doe as second) I'll also be working the Section B licenses to pull a second animal of each species. Both will be female but when meat is one of the goals they work just fine. The Mtn. goat (1st point collected this year), and antelope (1 point from last year, but feeling good about this one since I've found some private land in an almost exclusive private unit) are dreams, but just like the lottery, you can't win if you don't play. If you want to hunt the best of the best you'll probably have to wait. If you want to hunt, apply for a lesser unit and bank on it. I'm more interested in meat, the thrill of the chase, and different species, than horn size and B&C score. I started hunting big game in colorado in 2002 and have had tags every year. I'm sorry if that upsets anyone. The system is frustrating, but it can be worked and i think there i clear evidence out in the field that it does work.
Ok Doggin here is how your unit breaks down....
For unit 67 ml elk tag. Last year there were 30 tags total issued. Of that 5 were taken off the top for landowner tags. Leaving 25 for drawing. Assuming that there was no dramatic change in tags issued (and there seldom is unless they are making the unit a trophy unit). We will assume that the numbers are fairly close this year as to what they were last. So the numbers break down like this. Since the hunt code requires less than 5 prefernce points(it is close to changing) the resident nonresident split is like this. Residents get 65% of total tags and non gets 35% of total. So of the 25 tags left you are only eligible to get one of 16 tags. Non-residents are trying for one of 9 tags. The points breakdown last year was as follows:
Resident: 2 people applied with 5 points.
They drew thus leaving 14 tags for res
4 applied with 4 points
They drew thus leaving 10 tags for res
18 applied with 3 points
Of that only ten drew and 8 did not.
41 applied with 2 points
None drew
So with three points last year as a resident you had close to a 50/50 chance of drawing. If you had 4 or more points you had a 100% chance.
For NonResidents it looked like this: (remember they only 35% now = 9 tags)
1 applied with 9 points and drew leaving 8 tags
1 applied with 8 points and drew leaving 7 tags
1 applied with 7 points and drew leaving 6 tags
6 applied with 6 points taking rest.
For nonresident it is taking 6 points to draw for a unit 67 ml bull tag.
Looking at the break down.... 5 landowner tags out of 30 seems like a lot. That is 16% going to them. If it gets to a 5 point resident draw that the breakdown becomes 85% res and 15% non. That is good and bad. It means it will take you longer to draw, but when you hit 5 points there will be about 2 or 3 more resdient tags and 2 or 3 less non resident.
Good luck.... I am not sure how to go about explaining this. I learned by having the DOW staff show me in person how to figure it out.
BTW last year it took a minimum of 15 almost 16 points to draw. yikes, 7 more years to hit that mark and proably by then it will be up to a minimum of 18...... After that I will proable give up on pointsd entierely and hunt general areas...
For unit 67 ml elk tag. Last year there were 30 tags total issued. Of that 5 were taken off the top for landowner tags. Leaving 25 for drawing. Assuming that there was no dramatic change in tags issued (and there seldom is unless they are making the unit a trophy unit). We will assume that the numbers are fairly close this year as to what they were last. So the numbers break down like this. Since the hunt code requires less than 5 prefernce points(it is close to changing) the resident nonresident split is like this. Residents get 65% of total tags and non gets 35% of total. So of the 25 tags left you are only eligible to get one of 16 tags. Non-residents are trying for one of 9 tags. The points breakdown last year was as follows:
Resident: 2 people applied with 5 points.
They drew thus leaving 14 tags for res
4 applied with 4 points
They drew thus leaving 10 tags for res
18 applied with 3 points
Of that only ten drew and 8 did not.
41 applied with 2 points
None drew
So with three points last year as a resident you had close to a 50/50 chance of drawing. If you had 4 or more points you had a 100% chance.
For NonResidents it looked like this: (remember they only 35% now = 9 tags)
1 applied with 9 points and drew leaving 8 tags
1 applied with 8 points and drew leaving 7 tags
1 applied with 7 points and drew leaving 6 tags
6 applied with 6 points taking rest.
For nonresident it is taking 6 points to draw for a unit 67 ml bull tag.
Looking at the break down.... 5 landowner tags out of 30 seems like a lot. That is 16% going to them. If it gets to a 5 point resident draw that the breakdown becomes 85% res and 15% non. That is good and bad. It means it will take you longer to draw, but when you hit 5 points there will be about 2 or 3 more resdient tags and 2 or 3 less non resident.
Good luck.... I am not sure how to go about explaining this. I learned by having the DOW staff show me in person how to figure it out.
BTW last year it took a minimum of 15 almost 16 points to draw. yikes, 7 more years to hit that mark and proably by then it will be up to a minimum of 18...... After that I will proable give up on pointsd entierely and hunt general areas...
doggin coyotes
Well-known member
Thanks Elks for taking the time to look all that stuff up and posting it. You have more patience than I have. lol. I'm curious about one other thing. My 2nd choice for a cow state wide. Where does that fit in the scheme of things here?
I'm going to stop whining and crying now and let it die. I'll take my frustrations out on the coyotes a little earlier than normal this fall.
Thanks again buddy for clearing up some things.
I'm going to stop whining and crying now and let it die. I'll take my frustrations out on the coyotes a little earlier than normal this fall.
Thanks again buddy for clearing up some things.
Doggin....
What hunt code did you use for your second choice? It all depends on what code you used. For example your code for ML tag was.... EM06701M, what was the code you put for 2nd choice? I agree with long cruise that the second and third and fourth choices are pretty pointless. The best thing to do, is to put in for your first choice and request a leftover draw. The leftoverdraw is a second draw of all the tags left over. It is then that I choose which tag I will hunt. If I do not draw in the left over tag draw then, I go stand in line when they go on sale.
What hunt code did you use for your second choice? It all depends on what code you used. For example your code for ML tag was.... EM06701M, what was the code you put for 2nd choice? I agree with long cruise that the second and third and fourth choices are pretty pointless. The best thing to do, is to put in for your first choice and request a leftover draw. The leftoverdraw is a second draw of all the tags left over. It is then that I choose which tag I will hunt. If I do not draw in the left over tag draw then, I go stand in line when they go on sale.
Longcruise
New member
Ok, here is the tutorial on how to calculate your chances in the Colorado draw. This applys to deer, elk, antelope and bear. Goat, Sheep, and moose use a different system and I'm not going into it here!
Notice the rather large and hard to read graphic (sorry). [edit; by the time i reduced the images to a size the board would accept they became a bit hard to read. you may have to right click and print them to follow along.]
This is from the Hunt recap that is published each year for the previous year. As Elks said, your chances from year to year are pretty stable unless a unit is converted to a trophy unit or if tags are increased or reduced to meet population objectives. I'm using a limited cow draw hunt code because it illustrates some variations that you need to know about such as Youth licenses (there are no special youth licenses for bulls or buck deer or antelope, but they are available for cow/doe elk, deer and antelope RIFLE TAGS. Not for archery or ml)
Starting on the left is the hunt code. This code interprets as Elk Female, unit 28, 2nd rifle season. Next to the right are the quotas or licenses allowed. You see 243 General licenses, no landowner tags, no non resident landowner tags and 42 youth tags. Grand total of 285 tags for this hunt code. Next to the right are the number of applications. there were 297 first choice apps, 161 second choice apps, etc., etc. Next to the right are the applications broken down by resident, non resident and youth. there were 232 res, 53 non res and 12 youth.
Now, before going on, you must realize that the nonresident licensce are limited to 35% of the total and that youth licenses that are not applied for flow back to the General quota. Therefore, only 12 youths applied for the 42 tags that were set aside for youth. that means that 30 unapplied foir youth tags flowed back to the general quota to make the actual general tags available 273 total. IF there had been landowner quota tags and IF they had been unapplied for by qualified landowners, they too would flow back to general tag allocation.
(there is a huge opportunity here for youth hunters that goes unused and this is a good example. There are many hard to draw doe and cow tags out there that are a guaranteed draw for kids if they put in, but the kids don't understand the system and apparently neither do their parents. Or worse yet maybe their parents don't care! My grandson will draw a doe antelope tag this year in a good public land unit with no points that I would need two points to draw)
Next we get to the key to calculating your chances. Go to the last section titled preference points. You will see points liste from 0 to 11 at the top. Below they don't show in two rows but stop at five points because nobody had 6 or more points. Interpret as such; there were 221 resident applicants with 0 points. 21 with 1 point, 1 with 2 points and 1 with 3 points. The nonresidents show 48 with 0 points, 4 with 1 point and 1 with 2 points. Ok, there are 273 tags available and 297 applicants. There are 23 residents with 1 or more points and 5 nonresidents with 1 or more points. Those 28 applicants are a sure thing. There are not enough non residents to exceed the 35% limit so the remaining 269 res and non res applicants are vying equally with no points for the remaining 245 licences. That means that any one of those applicants has a 91% chance to draw a tag.
Be sure to look back at the number of applicants who applied for this hunt code as a second choice (161) a third choice (52) and a fourth choice (34). NONE OF THOSE APPLICANTS HAD ANY CHANCE. EVEN IF THEY HAD 10 POINTS, CAUSE THEY WERE NOT CONSIDERED UNTIL ALL THE FIRST CHOICE APPLICANTS HAD BEEN DRAWN. If you are going for a tag that you know you don't have enough points to draw, then use this same system to calculate your chances for your second choice and be sure to go for a unit that you have a good chance to draw a second choice tag in!!!! Some,like this unit 28, offer no chance for a second choice applicant, but some offer a 100% chance for a second choice applicant!!
This example shows a pretty good chance for most anybody to draw these tags, but if you go to one of the sought after trophy units such as unit 10 or 201 and look at the odds you will be able to calculate exactly how many points are a 100% chance and how many have a less than 100% chance.
Below are the stats for unit 67 muzzleloading bull tags. If you take the explanation above and apply it to the stats below you see that there were 30 tags available to the public (the five landowner tags will be sucked up and sold to well heeled hunters). Ten tags will go to non res and 20 to res. Just go to the point holders and start adding them up backwards till you get to ten non res or 20 res. As you can see, there are seven res with more than two points and they are a sure thing. That leaves 18 applicants with two points vying for the remaining 13 licensces each has a 72.2% chance of drawing. The other 75 applicants with one or less points get nada! Check out the non res applicants; nine applicants with 5 or more pints will draw and the 22 applicants with four points have a little less than 1/2 of a percent chance.
Once again, believe it or not, some applicants wasted their second choice on this unit!!!! Drawing a second choice does not burn points so whey not apply for one where there is a chance or not bother wasting the ink at all!!!
Notice the rather large and hard to read graphic (sorry). [edit; by the time i reduced the images to a size the board would accept they became a bit hard to read. you may have to right click and print them to follow along.]
This is from the Hunt recap that is published each year for the previous year. As Elks said, your chances from year to year are pretty stable unless a unit is converted to a trophy unit or if tags are increased or reduced to meet population objectives. I'm using a limited cow draw hunt code because it illustrates some variations that you need to know about such as Youth licenses (there are no special youth licenses for bulls or buck deer or antelope, but they are available for cow/doe elk, deer and antelope RIFLE TAGS. Not for archery or ml)
Starting on the left is the hunt code. This code interprets as Elk Female, unit 28, 2nd rifle season. Next to the right are the quotas or licenses allowed. You see 243 General licenses, no landowner tags, no non resident landowner tags and 42 youth tags. Grand total of 285 tags for this hunt code. Next to the right are the number of applications. there were 297 first choice apps, 161 second choice apps, etc., etc. Next to the right are the applications broken down by resident, non resident and youth. there were 232 res, 53 non res and 12 youth.
Now, before going on, you must realize that the nonresident licensce are limited to 35% of the total and that youth licenses that are not applied for flow back to the General quota. Therefore, only 12 youths applied for the 42 tags that were set aside for youth. that means that 30 unapplied foir youth tags flowed back to the general quota to make the actual general tags available 273 total. IF there had been landowner quota tags and IF they had been unapplied for by qualified landowners, they too would flow back to general tag allocation.
(there is a huge opportunity here for youth hunters that goes unused and this is a good example. There are many hard to draw doe and cow tags out there that are a guaranteed draw for kids if they put in, but the kids don't understand the system and apparently neither do their parents. Or worse yet maybe their parents don't care! My grandson will draw a doe antelope tag this year in a good public land unit with no points that I would need two points to draw)
Next we get to the key to calculating your chances. Go to the last section titled preference points. You will see points liste from 0 to 11 at the top. Below they don't show in two rows but stop at five points because nobody had 6 or more points. Interpret as such; there were 221 resident applicants with 0 points. 21 with 1 point, 1 with 2 points and 1 with 3 points. The nonresidents show 48 with 0 points, 4 with 1 point and 1 with 2 points. Ok, there are 273 tags available and 297 applicants. There are 23 residents with 1 or more points and 5 nonresidents with 1 or more points. Those 28 applicants are a sure thing. There are not enough non residents to exceed the 35% limit so the remaining 269 res and non res applicants are vying equally with no points for the remaining 245 licences. That means that any one of those applicants has a 91% chance to draw a tag.
Be sure to look back at the number of applicants who applied for this hunt code as a second choice (161) a third choice (52) and a fourth choice (34). NONE OF THOSE APPLICANTS HAD ANY CHANCE. EVEN IF THEY HAD 10 POINTS, CAUSE THEY WERE NOT CONSIDERED UNTIL ALL THE FIRST CHOICE APPLICANTS HAD BEEN DRAWN. If you are going for a tag that you know you don't have enough points to draw, then use this same system to calculate your chances for your second choice and be sure to go for a unit that you have a good chance to draw a second choice tag in!!!! Some,like this unit 28, offer no chance for a second choice applicant, but some offer a 100% chance for a second choice applicant!!
This example shows a pretty good chance for most anybody to draw these tags, but if you go to one of the sought after trophy units such as unit 10 or 201 and look at the odds you will be able to calculate exactly how many points are a 100% chance and how many have a less than 100% chance.
Below are the stats for unit 67 muzzleloading bull tags. If you take the explanation above and apply it to the stats below you see that there were 30 tags available to the public (the five landowner tags will be sucked up and sold to well heeled hunters). Ten tags will go to non res and 20 to res. Just go to the point holders and start adding them up backwards till you get to ten non res or 20 res. As you can see, there are seven res with more than two points and they are a sure thing. That leaves 18 applicants with two points vying for the remaining 13 licensces each has a 72.2% chance of drawing. The other 75 applicants with one or less points get nada! Check out the non res applicants; nine applicants with 5 or more pints will draw and the 22 applicants with four points have a little less than 1/2 of a percent chance.
Once again, believe it or not, some applicants wasted their second choice on this unit!!!! Drawing a second choice does not burn points so whey not apply for one where there is a chance or not bother wasting the ink at all!!!
Last edited:
ArizonaArcher
New member
One thing you need to keep in mind... Those stats are based on what was applied for last year. Just because it took "3 PP" or however many to draw last year (say 2005), this year it could take more or fewer based on how many people will put in for it(in 2006). Odds are it will take more... but technically there is a possibility to get it with less.