oiler,
I agree that the deer population is down. It's extremely obvious to anyone who's in the field trying to fill their freezer I'm sure.
The question "why" can be a matter of several factors, of which, a few of them have been touched on here.
sleddog's observations of seeing "coyotes crossing the roads with fawns in their mouths" is an issue that can't be ignored. The coyote's will nab them shortly after they're born, and based on their instinctive necessity to "lay still", they're an easy grab for a hungry dog.
I've seen farmers running their hay choppers run right over them while cutting the fields. They hold still even then.
I don't know the real percentage of how many deer totally are killed by coyotes, but it would seem that the largest deer kills by coyotes is more directed towards the fawns. The only full grown deer that the coyotes seem to target are the sicker ones mostly, but I have personally seen a group of three coyotes chase down a large doe (who seemed healthy) and between them, drag her down to the ground and start feeding on her before she was dead.
This was at a distance of over 700yds, and I had no gun at the time. I was driving to and from a gunshop in Rochester, NY, and passed through some hunting areas I frequent once in awhile. As luck would have it, I had my binoculars and while sitting roadside, I watched this whole thing unfold. That poor deer died a miserable death, and within seconds, she was so badly mauled, I highly doubt she'd have made it even if I could've shot the three culprits.
Back to the point.....
I feel that the deer issue in NY state is a "combined reason" as to why the deer populations are dwindling, and a major part of it is NYS's DEC handing out doe permits like candy.
If you saw a ban for even 1 year, you'd see a major increase in the deer populations. When I moved here back in 1980-81, I was literally amazed at how many deer I saw grazing out in the fields at dusk. I had been hunting for several years by then, and the sight of seeing 150-300 deer out in the fields that surround Letchworth Park was a "mouth opener". It was visually amazing, and I'll never see that again, I'm sure.
Within 10yrs, it got less and less, and now you might see an even dozen if you're lucky.
My pet peeve is that NYS's DEC is making money off of a natural resource that is manily substantiated, or supported, by the labors of the state's farmers. Oh yeah, they toss the farmer's a bone by "allowing them" the right to take deer who are damaging their crops, but they have to obtain a permit to do that.
Even though the lower deer populations are obvious to DEC, do you think they'd curb the permits, or even invest more of the state's money to try and increase the populations, hell no.
Each year, even though the populations are lower and lower, the state keeps issuing more and more permits, that they say, are issued in the numbers they are to "control the deer heard"........BS.....
They know that if the population is down......so are your chances of getting one, which in turn, means no deer had been taken for the monies collected.
Your paying for a chance in another state "lotto" game.
Sorry for the rant folks, but I worked with DEC in my last job, and what I've said is based not only on my visual observations, but also from verbal "slips" from some of my DEC buddies.
As a local remedy to the deer issue, my neighbor's and I are planning to start planting cover crop "food plots", and spend some of our hard earned cash to try and assist the local poulations. More than likely it won't produce a huge difference, but at least it's an effort to aide them. I love to hunt deer, as well as coyotes, fox and chucks, and I've realized over the years that the hunter is actually their best friend overall.
Take care,
Bob