Deterrence

Stu Farish

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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=55819

Walter Williams

Threats needed now to deter trouble later
Posted: May 23, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern

What should our response be if terrorists set off a nuclear explosion, or some other weapon of mass destruction, in one of our cities? I put this question to Professor Victor Hanson, senior research fellow at Stanford University's prestigious Hoover Institution, who spoke on the Iraq war at the Wynnewood Institute lecture series.

His answer to my question bore a slight resemblance to a classroom practice of mine. At the beginning of each semester, I tell my students that I'm getting old and a cell phone ringing during my lecture could be devastating to my train of thought. Therefore, the penalty for a student's cell phone going off in class is a five percent reduction in his total points for the semester and a five percent reduction in the total points of the students sitting on either side of him. Of course, the students are shocked. The penalty might not be fair, penalizing a person for the actions of another, but I've not had trouble with cell phones going off in class.

Professor Hanson's answer referenced his July 6, 2004, National Review article titled "Another 9/11? The Awful Response That We Dare Not Speak About." He argues that without the direct aid of countries like Iran, Syria and rogue elements within the Saudi Arabian, Jordanian and Pakistani governments, and millions of ordinary Arabs, who know who terrorists are and where they sleep and won't turn them in, a massive terrorist attack on the United States would be nearly impossible. That means terrorists have some kind of local support. If there is an attack on our country, with weapons of mass destruction, the first thing we can expect is for country officials to deny any responsibility. Hanson says that we should beforehand tell the leaders of Middle East countries that if there's an attack on the United States, we will hold them responsible if they're proven to have aided or sheltered the terrorists.

Holding the country responsible would mean that in response to an attack we'd totally destroy their military bases, power plants, communication facilities and, if necessary, totally destroy their major cities. You say, "Williams, that's unthinkable!" Yet, while unpleasant, it is thinkable. That's precisely how 50 years of peace were maintained between the Western powers and the former Soviet Union. The leaders of the USSR knew that any attack on the United States would provoke an immediate massive nuclear retaliation. As frightening as the policy of Mutually Assured Destruction was, in the absence of a better strategy, neither Americans nor Russians were incinerated.

Laying down such a gauntlet is nothing new; it simply requires courageous leadership. In the wake of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, President John F. Kennedy credibly warned the leaders of the Soviet Union that: "It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union." There's little question that President Kennedy's "full retaliatory response" would have included nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately, today, there's neither the American leadership nor the American character to protect ourselves from people whose declared aim is to destroy us. It's not just Americans, but the West in general, who have lost the will to protect themselves from the barbarism of the Middle East. Keep in mind that the mighty Roman Empire fell to barbarians who ushered in the Dark Ages.
 
It's not beyond the real of possibility for that to happen.

religious extremists have declared & are waging a religious war against us. so far we have been fighting it while at the same time making great efforts to prevent it from expanding to be a true religious war of everyone against all moslems.

But there could come a day when enough patience has been consumed & a very harsh tactical decision is made & Mecca ceases to exist.

I don't want to see that happen. But I can see how it could happen.
 
I know it was a fictional story by Tom Clancy that subsequently became a movie but take a look at The Sum of All Fears one more time.
 
Trying not to get too morbid,, A substantial retaliation against a Middle Eastern country would produce the world's largest platter (Sand at high temps turns to a form of glass).

That would effectively seal off the supply of oil to many of the world's countries and get our 'politically correct' liberal legislators off their duffs and we would begin drilling in the Gulf of Mexico (to heck with the view), the Alaskan fields and probably in the rumored fields in Wyoming.

All those anticipated oil supplies that are under contract to China, Korea, and Japan, would be non-available for delivery leaving West Africa and Venezuela as the only source for those countries. While it would put Chavez in a very powerful position financially, he would be hard pressed to meet the immediate demand and most of those countries would slowly grind to a short-term halt.

Would we suffer?, Sure we would for a short while, playing catch-up, but terrorism as we know it now would be set back centuries.

If we (the American Public/Politicians) would ever really get serious about our borders and ports, we might forestall such an event for a short while.... But, I don't see that happening with any degree of effectiveness...

I don't want or advocate a "police state", just responsible control..
 
iran would have been out of the picture in 79 if i'd have been pres enstead of the wimp peanut farmer. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused1.gif
we would have found a way to drill radioactive glass by now. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grinning-smiley-003.gif
 
Redeyeddog, You be my bombadaire, greg223 my co-pilot,
mspingy and leon co-navigators. Bash the bastards now.
Stu, you are the photographer.


Frankie B. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grinning-smiley-003.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grinning-smiley-003.gif /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grinning-smiley-003.gif
 
I don't have an itchy trigger finger on this. I don't think it's a given that wiping out Mecca would solve anything & at the very least could make things a lot worse.

But it's something that could happen given the right circumstances. Say, Al Qaeda manages to set of some sort of nuke or dirty bomb here & do some real damage. Such an event could well result in a "You better keep the people of your faith under control. We've taken out one of your most important religious sites & if anything like this happens again we're taking out more." decision.

I would prefer to win this without having to do that.
 
We must not forget to think about other deterrent scenarios.
We assume that it is the US vs. the Terrorist States.

But think about what surrounds the Terrorist States.
1) Israel
2) The USSR
3) China
4) India

These are all nuclear club members that are much closer to the situation that we are. They have more to lose, they are easier to attack by virtue of their proximity.

Israel has already said that if Iran shoots off a nuke on their soil there will not be enough living Iranians left to count the dead ones.

The remaining 3 countries are not really in the fight yet, but rest assured, Im sure they are monitoring the situation very closely. Im fairly certain there is more than one Terrorist with a grudge against the USSR for example. And these Terrorists dont like freedom/free market stuff, which those countries all have to one extent or another.

I wont even get into all the speculative scenarios that could arise by adding just by adding one attack on those nations, just to say that it is interesting to think about.
More than one way to skin the cat.
 
I think it is just a matter of time.

I am not convinced M.A.D. will stop it. Not against an enemy that could care less of our lives and even less of their own.
 
The problem with Mecca is that it is a historic, cultural site. Not a military one.

if we determine that a govt has provided material support for attacks on us, let's say Iran or Syria which we know are in fact doing, IMO it makes far more sense to hit them for it. Not a city that is related only by it's importance to their religion.

Syria complicit? Fine. Pick legitimate military targets in Syria & cause them to cease to exist. Military bases. weapons & munitions factories or storage, training facilities. That's not only fine, it serves the legitimate purpose of removing an asset from the enemy so it can no longer be used against us. Remove enough of them & he can no longer pose a significant threat.
 
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The problem with Mecca is that it is a historic, cultural site. Not a military one.



Hey. The World Trade Center was a cultural site, a tourist site. A site for conductance of business between many nations and cultures. Not a military one.
An American Landmark I toured many, many times with friends and relatives from Ireland and Italy. MECCA??? I certainly shall not miss it. It's unfortunate that draconian methods may be necessary to bring peace. Terrorism will continue to exist as long it is expedient and allowed to do so. Blackjack Pershing found the solution.
This would be only a different version of the same solution.
Remember No Pearl Harbor No Atom Bomb


Frankie B.
 
And that is one of the reasons we got particularly outraged over the attack. They didn't have the decency to hit legitimate military targets.

and pearl harbor *was* a military target. the Japanese picked the target correctly, it was the whole sneak attack without having declared war that threw us into a rage then.
 
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The problem with hitting military targets in Syria, Lebanon,Iran or elseware is that the enemy is well aware of our humanitarian weakness of trying not to kill innocent civilians. They capitalize on that by hiding among civilian populations, knowing if we kill civilians, world opinion would increase against us much the same as it has in the past. Tikrit is an example of a stronghold of Al Qaeda terrorists. Why is it still standing? Ronald Reagan would have flattened it long ago damning world opinion.
A poll taken among Moslem American youth in America found 25% of them thought it was ok to be a suicide bomber to protect your religion. Most American Moslems decried this saying the kids read the wrong version of the Koran. They read the terrorist version. (The Talaban version)
That is a sad state of affairs when these kids may kill our grandchildren and yours because they think it's ok.

Frankie B.
 
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the enemy is well aware of our humanitarian weakness of trying not to kill innocent civilians.



Our Rules Of Engagement (ROE) do hamper our effort. Unfortunatly what would really work in combating the extremists would be looked on with horror by a "sensitive" American public. Look at the reaction to a few guys forced to wear underwear on their head.

Besides the wimpy attitudes from the public, our strategists often seem to misunderstand the culture of our enemy. Being caring and sensitive in battle is viewed as weakness in mideast culture. It doesn't make those uninvolved on the sidelines in Tikrit (or wherever) like us or make them more apt to cooperate with us. In their culture it makes us sissies and wimps and makes them less likely to cooperate with us.

Read what Osama says about us. They respect our machines of war, but think our soldiers and politicians and Americans in general are weak pansies.
 


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Read what Osama says about us



Yeap! Think of that after they found the body of our hero Anzac floating in the Euphrates River.

In Gitmo, a pit should be dug. 50 prisoners lined up.
Slaughter some pigs and cover them with pig blood. Then
beat on the prisoners then machine 49 of them. Take the 50th scumbag and send him back to Afghanistan to find Al Jeezera news paper and tell them what happened. Send him back with a high defination video.

Frankie B.

P.S. Hey Stu, you still wanna be photographer? Ha Ha
 
Mecca may not be a military target, but it does provide the fuel for the hatred machine aimed at the west. If it were vaporized, where would the Islamists face while banging their heads on the ground five times a day? The utter destruction of their "holy" city would throw the enemy in such complete disarray they couldn't possibly mount a substantial response. The only way to get a jihadist's attention is through brute force. Anything else is viewed as weakness, which is clearly written in the Koran. Look at Damascus, Syria. It is the world's longest continuosly existing city. It is both a cultural and military target. It's days are also numbered according to the Book of Revelation. It may not be us that takes it out, but someone will.
 
Or you might just succeed in convincing 10's of millions of people who don't give a flip about this war so long as it doesn't touch them a reason to choose a side. And I don't think they'd be choosing ours.

Be careful what you ask for. You might just get it & it just might not be what you expect.
 
Redeyedawg, I think you have it wrong. The problem is not in Mecca. It is in the verses in the Koran which dictate behavior. As Stu says, nuking Mecca will almost certainly accomplish nothing more than making most of about 1 billion Muslims who are not currently fundamentalist/radical/bloodthirsty-barbarian-terrorists into exactly that. Not a good idea, in my humble opinion, even if you desire an excuse to massacre all of them.

Better to strike at those who support the enemy and smile in public about it, like Iran's President I'm-mad-on-jihad. Going after heads of state is iffy (since it invites retaliation in kind) but if he happened to be addressing a full gathering of the Iranian Parliament(?) one night and half a dozen 1000 lb. precision-guided JDAMs crash the party from a B-2, I doubt too many people even in Iran would cry about it, and it would certainly get the attention of certain other parties in whom we have a pressing interest. Assad, for one, would need an emergency change of underwear, probably several times over. That and a nice talking-to by Condi Rice about unfortunate consequences for unfortunate actions should do the trick. The Hezbollah guys in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the baddies in Iraq would find their money/weapons flow suddenly stopped, and the Iranians might have a chance to construct a non-mullah government for a change.

Who knows.
 
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