I was just doing a little reading about Kerry's stratagy and found some big problems for him in the long run. This article puts it pretty well...
Source
-------------------------------------------------
Reducing the map of competitive states could work against Kerry because:
Of the 14 states put in play by Kerry and his party this month, nine were won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, three by less than 10,000 votes. That means Kerry has more turf to protect.
If he no longer has to defend the seven GOP-leaning states, Bush may shift money into battleground states that tend to favor Democrats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, to increase pressure on Kerry.
The GOP-leaning states that won't see advertising until October are worth 73 electoral votes. Add that to the solidly Republican states and Bush would have 217 electoral votes. Winning two of his three big targets
Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania -- plus a single other state would put him over the 270 needed to win the election. That's not a simple task, but easier if he gets the seven GOP-leaning states handed to him.
Devine said Kerry is doing better in Ohio and Florida than Gore was in September 2000. Bush can't afford to lose either state.
"This is not about counting states, it's about counting electoral votes," said Devine who, for months, talked about the large number of states in play.
Source
-------------------------------------------------
Reducing the map of competitive states could work against Kerry because:
Of the 14 states put in play by Kerry and his party this month, nine were won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, three by less than 10,000 votes. That means Kerry has more turf to protect.
If he no longer has to defend the seven GOP-leaning states, Bush may shift money into battleground states that tend to favor Democrats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, to increase pressure on Kerry.
The GOP-leaning states that won't see advertising until October are worth 73 electoral votes. Add that to the solidly Republican states and Bush would have 217 electoral votes. Winning two of his three big targets
Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania -- plus a single other state would put him over the 270 needed to win the election. That's not a simple task, but easier if he gets the seven GOP-leaning states handed to him.
Devine said Kerry is doing better in Ohio and Florida than Gore was in September 2000. Bush can't afford to lose either state.
"This is not about counting states, it's about counting electoral votes," said Devine who, for months, talked about the large number of states in play.