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How can I ACCURATELY predict the phases of the rut and when it will be?
This is almost impossible to do for several reasons.
1. While the phases are consistant in order (Pre-rut, rut, and post-rut), all bucks are not in the same phase at the same time. In other words, one buck might be in "full rut" while another is in "post rut".
What mainy fail to realize is that the DOES actually determine the rut. When does come into estrous, then the bucks go into rut, and all does do not come in at the same time. Additionally, when a doe is not bred during her first cycle, then she will come in again in about 28 days.
While there is generally a "peak" period of say a week or so, the rut may be so prolonged that it is difficult to accurately identify the peak period.
The buck/doe ratio has a whole lot to do with how "high" the peak is. If the ratio is skewed sharply towards does, then the rut will be much more spread out and difficult to determine, as will be evident in the spring when newborn fawn can be seen from May-August as is the case in much of the south.
Photoperiod likely has more to do with the "timing" of does coming into estrous than the moon phase or weather.