This is the reason to buy from a company that does service their equipment. A person never knows as who thought Flir would stop producing thermal rifle scopes, but look for a company that can service about any part of a thermal. You are correct it is a piece of electronics that is subjected to brutal conditions. I asked this question to the owner of Bering to get his perspective some time back. Here were his thoughts:
* Thermal sensor around 44,000 hours expected life based on his experience with VOX style sensors
* Display 5-10 year life expectancy (current stats show 90% make it to 10 years)
* Processor 10 year life expectancy
* Body Materials 25 year life expectancy
* Germanium lens 20 year life expectancy
There are lots of smaller components, but these are the major ones. The display having the least amount of life expectancy. If your thermal only has a 2 or 3 year warranty and the company will not service all parts of the unit (or carry parts any longer), I wouldn't expect much more. If a person takes care of their equipment, and has good fortune, you should be able to get a long life from your thermal. If your fortune is not as good, hopefully you bought from a company who can service the unit.
Now as you said, the tech may become outdated long before it will no longer operate.