Almost any time you fire a weapon at a 30 degree angle or less, you run the high risk of a ricochet...The steeper the angle the less the risk..The only time I will shoot at anything in the water is if the target is very close to the opposite bank where a ricochet will most likely hit the bank instead of passing over the edge of it..
I used to do demonstrations in Firearms Training with more solid objects than water, using shotgun rounds as well as handgun rounds and most of the time the bullet that was fired at a vertical brick/concrete wall or flat pavement at approximately 30 degrees would exit the surface at approximately 18" from it and then continue on a path that closely matched the surface...Try it some time and place an inflated balloon at the end of the wall or pavement..
