Iranian Uprising

From the beginning of this conflict I maintained that UNLESS there was a regime change, there wasn’t a lot to come from this other than the destruction of the nuclear facility.

The oil and gas problem in Iran is a temporary problem, all crisis create opportunity. At the moment and near future Iran is holding all the cards regarding oil and the Strait of Hormuz. They can enjoy their new found power of holding the world hostage on oil but it will be a VERY short lived 15 minutes of fame.

Iran has shown the entire world the NEED to drill for oil and gas outside of this region and that’s exactly what will happen, “drill Baby drill”. World markets and the NEED for petro will drive “new” oil production through the roof. Every drilling contractor, oil and gas producer will be drilling.

For the moment Iran has screwed the world and in the long term, Iran has screwed themselves and their neighbors. Neighboring oil rich countries best wake from their slumber! Their oil based economies will slowly crumble; the world will find oil and gas elsewhere.
 
When the U.S. tried building armies in Iraq and Afghanistan, it had 20 years, massive troop presence, secure supply lines, and far less economic pressure than today.

Now there’s less time, less public appetite for another forever war, and a world economy already strained by disrupted shipping and energy markets.

So if that strategy failed under better conditions then, believing it will work faster under worse conditions now — inside Iran, a larger and more entrenched state — isn’t strategy. It’s a Fox News storyline.
 
Yesterday’s Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on the 2027 Pentagon budget turned into a hearing on the Iran war. Hegseth came to defend a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget, but senators kept pressing one point: with $29 billion already spent and no clear endgame, how long can the economy absorb this before the damage spreads further?



I guess Hegseth should’ve just told the Senate to relax — we’re secretly training Iranians to overthrow their government... from hundreds of miles offshore, while hiding from missile range. Should be any day now.
 
Fall of Kabul — the U.S. told the Afghan army it was time to stand on its own. As fast as we pulled out, they folded and the Taliban took the country.

Northern Iraq offensive — ISIS swept across Iraq, and Iraqi troops abandoned posts so fast many ditched their uniforms and ran.

Years of training. Billions in equipment. Embedded advisors. Blue-on-green attacks during the mission. And that was the result.

So now we’re supposed to believe the same playbook suddenly works inside Iran — faster, from hundreds of miles offshore, under worse economic pressure?
 
Infidel 762 said:
Fall of Kabul — the U.S. told the Afghan army it was time to stand on its own. As fast as we pulled out, they folded and the Taliban took the country.

Northern Iraq offensive — ISIS swept across Iraq, and Iraqi troops abandoned posts so fast many ditched their uniforms and ran.

Years of training. Billions in equipment. Embedded advisors. Blue-on-green attacks during the mission. And that was the result.

So now we’re supposed to believe the same playbook suddenly works inside Iran — faster, from hundreds of miles offshore, under worse economic pressure?
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Seems we like to stack up the "historical shit shows" over the last several decades.
 
popper43 said:
I understand Infidel's opinion but he offers NO alternative.
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I have already answered what I think the alternatives should be on the previous page. Go back and read.

You already said your view when asked if we are winning, and I quote;
popper43 said:
So far, we have. The nuke material is buried, will take a bunch of $ to dig it out which Iran doesn't have.
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Because honestly… I wish I had the blinders to believe the narrative like you. It would make all of this a lot simpler.
 
crapshoot said:
Maybe because there is none at this point. Or at least one that would do any good.
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My worthless opinion, Its either drag it out which is partially retarded or go full retard. Either wont be good, Oil companies are saying they wont have product to sell here soon. Shell told walmart they cant ship to them. I just hope yall are prepped and stocked up like your grandparents used to do.
 
popper43 said:
So far, we have. The nuke material is buried, will take a bunch of $ to dig it out which Iran doesn't have.
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So Iran can withstand pressure from the most powerful military on earth, sustain a decades-long nuclear program under sanctions, build missile networks, underground facilities, and regional proxies…

…but suddenly they can’t afford excavation equipment to dig out buried material?

Got it.
 
Widow maker 223 said:
My worthless opinion, Its either drag it out which is partially retarded or go full retard. Either wont be good, Oil companies are saying they wont have product to sell here soon. Shell told walmart they cant ship to them. I just hope yall are prepped and stocked up like your grandparents used to do.
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Your grandparents’ generation understood something we forgot: when systems start straining, you don’t wait for headlines to tell you it’s real. You prepare before the shelves remind you.
 
Sure, the world will eventually find alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. That does not stop what happens first: higher fuel, higher shipping, higher groceries, higher everything.

That is the part people keep pretending away. Energy shocks are not temporary for working families. The crisis may pass; the prices usually do not. Once businesses reset to a higher cost baseline, they rarely roll it back. A bottle of soda is the easiest example — once it jumps from $1 to $2.50, that old price is gone.

The administration campaigned on fixing the economy. That was the sales pitch. But if policy choices trigger a regional war that drives permanent inflation while leadership says they are not thinking about Americans’ financial situation, then what exactly was fixed?

You do not have to hate the president to admit when a policy is hurting the country. But too many people turned politics into team sports, where criticism only matters if the other party does it.

That is how nations walk into bad wars and economic decline — not because nobody saw it, but because too many people saw it and stayed quiet to protect their side.

 
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If the mission was truly just stopping a nuclear weapon, then the public story and the actual moves do not match.

You do not announce success, then reopen negotiations through intermediaries for a deal similar to the one you said was a disaster. You do not claim the threat is neutralized while carrier groups sit offshore managing shipping fallout instead of closing the objective out on the ground.

That is what people are noticing: if the job was done, why is every move afterward shaped like damage control?

That is usually the tell. Publicly, it is victory. Behind closed doors, it is containment — because they know escalation has costs they cannot openly sell to the public.

That is what a quagmire looks like at the beginning. Not a dramatic collapse. Just leaders changing the objective, slowing momentum, and calling it strategy while the costs keep rising and the original goal stays unfinished.
 
Infidel 762 said:
Sure, the world will eventually find alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. That does not stop what happens first: higher fuel, higher shipping, higher groceries, higher everything.

That is the part people keep pretending away. Energy shocks are not temporary for working families. The crisis may pass; the prices usually do not. Once businesses reset to a higher cost baseline, they rarely roll it back. A bottle of soda is the easiest example — once it jumps from $1 to $2.50, that old price is gone.

The administration campaigned on fixing the economy. That was the sales pitch. But if policy choices trigger a regional war that drives permanent inflation while leadership says they are not thinking about Americans’ financial situation, then what exactly was fixed?

You do not have to hate the president to admit when a policy is hurting the country. But too many people turned politics into team sports, where criticism only matters if the other party does it.

That is how nations walk into bad wars and economic decline — not because nobody saw it, but because too many people saw it and stayed quiet to protect their side.

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We have a lot of foreign influence over our elected officials too. The lobby of "our greatest ally" is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into our government officials and political campaigns to get what they want instead of what is in the best interests of the United States to the point they are effectively capturing and dictating our middle east foreign policy. They don't like that when it is brought up or pointed out.
 
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Nobody really wants anything from Iran, Iraq or Afghanistan but OIL and trouble! Russia wanted Ukraine, China wanted Hong Kong (and when Taiwan became profitable). As I've stated before, countries want other peoples stuff for $ power and control. We can fight it (costs $ and lives) or stick our heads in the sand (no short term losses). Your choice.
Just like the education problem here, solve the problem ( I could but won't add comments) or have dumb kids.
 
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