I wish it were true—but acting like you can just replace the Strait of Hormuz like it’s a simple detour is wishful thinking.
There isn’t an extra 16 million barrels a day just sitting around waiting to be rerouted. Temporary workarounds only carry so much—especially in the middle of this war. And that “extra supply” and reserves he points to in China and India don’t change the core reality: reserves can buy time, but they don’t replace steady flow. If those countries secure barrels, it doesn’t create more oil—it just means someone else comes up short. The shortage doesn’t disappear; it shifts.
Same with tankers—you don’t close a multi-million barrel gap by adding a couple more ships. They move oil, they don’t create it. And we’re already seeing what disruption looks like in the real world. Countries are dealing with higher prices, shortages, and growing unrest as energy costs ripple through economies. From fuel protests and transport disruptions in Ireland, to tightening supply conditions in parts of Asia and the Philippines, governments are already being forced into emergency-level planning as price pressures build. And that’s with only partial disruption—not even a worst-case scenario.
As for stocks being near all-time highs, that just means a lot of people aren’t feeling it yet. These shocks don’t hit everywhere at once—but they spread through shipping costs, inflation, and supply chains, and when they do, markets reprice fast.
Saying it has “now turned into an afterthought”, is not grounded in reality. It is a global vulnerability that only looks quite until the moment it isn’t.
