Iranian Uprising

1777937232010.png
 
Yesterday was Taco Tuesday and Cinco de Mayo—perfect timing while we’re out there tripping over our own clown shoes on the world stage.

At this point, I’m half convinced Kamala hijacked his account and started writing the posts herself.

1778077977448.png
 
"Based on the request of Pakistan and other countries." - here we go again. So now we're treating U.S. military decisions like an open forum where even the goats get a vote. Trump will go down owning this as the greatest foreign policy failure in modern US history.
 
Two U.S. Navy destroyers ran a “thunder run” through the Strait on Monday and came under sustained Iranian fire.

The point isn’t even whether anything gets sunk—it’s the threat of it. Slow-moving tankers can’t meaningfully respond to that kind of threat environment, and you don’t need every ship hit for the effect to land.

All it takes is a credible enough risk profile, and people aren’t going to gamble a crew’s lives and a vessel on a cargo run through a live kill zone.
 
You guys are way above my apparent pay grade, but I will mention that I have several pretty large farmers who attend our Church and I haven't heard one of them say anything about not being able to get fertilizer or that the price was exorbitant as they were doing about 3 or 4 years back. On a much smaller scale, I was in a store which carries farm products including fertilizers and recently purchased pecan tree fertilizer and regular 10-10-10 and it was the same price as it has been for several years at $20/50 lb. bag.
 
DoubleUp said:
You guys are way above my apparent pay grade, but I will mention that I have several pretty large farmers who attend our Church and I haven't heard one of them say anything about not being able to get fertilizer or that the price was exorbitant as they were doing about 3 or 4 years back. On a much smaller scale, I was in a store which carries farm products including fertilizers and recently purchased pecan tree fertilizer and regular 10-10-10 and it was the same price as it has been for several years at $20/50 lb. bag.
Click to expand...

You’re not wrong to observe what you’re seeing locally—but it’s only one layer of a much bigger system.

After the 2020 COVID supply chain disruptions, fertilizer costs didn’t hit everyone at once or in the same way. Wholesale prices spiked first in 2021 due to pandemic supply chain issues. But retail packaged fertilizer lagged behind by roughly 12–24 months because stores were still working through older, pre-spike inventory and don’t adjust prices in real time.

Retail pricing is also intentionally “sticky.” Stores smooth increases so shelf prices don’t swing wildly. That’s why something like a $20/50 lb bag can look stable even while the upstream market has already moved significantly.

For larger farmers, though, the picture is different. They’re not primarily buying bagged retail fertilizer—they’re tied into bulk contracts. So they don’t experience changes on a shelf—they experience them at contract renewal cycles, where adjustments can show up all at once across large acreage.

And even now, what you’re seeing is the after-effect of that cycle. The price spikes that filtered through in 2022–2023 are still working their way down off a higher baseline. Prices haven’t fully reset—so the system is still in a slow adjustment phase where past shocks are fading.

So the reason you’re hearing stability locally and seeing steady shelf prices now isn’t because nothing happened—it’s because you’re looking at a delayed, buffered retail snapshot after a period where volatility already passed through wholesale markets and earlier farm contract cycles, and what remains is the gradual normalization from that higher cost structure, but a new one is coming.
 
The pandemic hit during Trump’s first term, shock hit the system in 2020, but inflation didn’t show up instantly at the consumer level. It worked through markets, and supply chains first. That’s why price pressure started building in 2021 and really peaked in 2022, during Biden’s term—long after the original disruption had already passed through the system. I know someone will add stimulus checks, etc. but the true effect was delayed.
 
I expect things to start really hitting next month. This is Locally in Indiana

Key Fertilizer Price and Impact Data (Early 2026):
  • Nitrogen (Urea/UAN): Urea prices have exceeded $800/ton for the first time since late 2022, with Liquid Nitrogen (32-0-0) trading around $800/ton.
  • Anhydrous Ammonia: Prices have jumped above $1,000/ton.
  • Total Increased Cost: For a 1,000-acre farm, rising fertilizer and fuel costs may increase expenses by $17,000–$33,000 or more, with some farmers projecting over $100,000 in additional costs.
  • Factors: The conflict in the Middle East and associated shipping disruptions (Strait of Hormuz) are causing, along with sustained high input demand,.
  • Prepayment: Farmers who did not pre-pay are facing the highest, most volatile prices, with some input costs increasing by nearly $100 per acre.
Application Costs:
  • Liquid/Dry fertilizer application costs are around $6.50


    per acre, while anhydrous ammonia application averages roughly $15.21


    per acre.
 
Politicians spin everything. Biden’s “bounce back” economy is a perfect example—headline numbers looked great, but a lot of it was just reopening jobs coming back online after shutdowns. The data looked cleaner than reality.

And just because there’s an “R” in front of someone’s name doesn’t suddenly mean the spin stops. It just changes branding.

What really boils my blood is hearing Trump AGAIN openly say operations are being called off at the request of Pakistan and “other countries.” That should bother everyone.

A president’s job is to make military decisions based on what U.S. generals and intelligence say is in America’s strategic interest—not based on what Pakistan asks.

Allies look out for their interests first. That’s normal. Trump was supposed to do the same.

The moment military decisions are driven more by foreign requests than independent U.S. analysis, we stop acting like a sovereign power and start acting like somebody else’s puppet.

But hey, apparently this is the new accepted norm now: don’t listen to what Trump says, just watch what he does.

The problem is that, beyond the constant lies and contradictions, all I see is a lack of focus, confusion, and stalling, while begging for negotiations to find a way out that avoids total humiliation.
 
Like I said, you guys are way above my pay grade. Thanks for the explanation. I will check again with my farmers at Church and see if anything has changed for them here in NC. I guess we just have to go back to God's Word and depend on it. At least that's what I'm trying to do.
Psalm 37:25, "I have been young, and now am old; yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread." My parents managed to survive the Great Depression, World War II, and several hurricanes in the 50's where we lost everything except the shell of the house my dad and granddaddy built.
 
As a sidenote: The old right or conservative wing of the R party back in time held non-interventionist foreign policies until pro-war democrats got disgruntled with their own party and joined the R party which is where the word neo-conservative or neocon is derived from.
 
Last edited:
DoubleUp said:
Like I said, you guys are way above my pay grade. Thanks for the explanation. I will check again with my farmers at Church and see if anything has changed for them here in NC. I guess we just have to go back to God's Word and depend on it. At least that's what I'm trying to do.
Psalm 37:25, "I have been young, and now am old; yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread." My parents managed to survive the Great Depression, World War II, and several hurricanes in the 50's where we lost everything except the shell of the house my dad and granddaddy built.
Click to expand...

Mine is a little more simple, though I forget to live by it sometimes:

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
 
"Two U.S. Navy destroyers ran a “thunder run” through the Strait on Monday and came under sustained Iranian fire." Hadn't heard they came under fire. Need air cover though.
 
Back
Top